SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151857
ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-152000-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1231
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0157 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN OK...NRN TX...CNTRL AR
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 151857Z - 152000Z
ISOLATED STORMS MAY EVENTUALLY FORM ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY
REGION...WITH A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. THE SEVERE THREAT
IS HIGHLY CONDITIONAL.
TEMPERATURES ARE HEATING INTO THE 90S ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY
WHILE DEWPOINTS HOLD IN THE 60S F. STRONG INSTABILITY IS ALREADY IN
PLACE AND LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTINUE TO STEEPEN. DEEP LAYER
SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR STORM ORGANIZATION AS WELL. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS WOULD BE THE LIKELY THREATS.
WITH CONTINUED HEATING AND WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG AN AXIS OF
DILATATION...ISOLATED STORMS MAY FORM. GIVEN EXPECTED COVERAGE...A
WATCH IS NOT LIKELY...A FEW SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ON A
LOCAL LEVEL.
..JEWELL.. 06/15/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...
LAT...LON 34819243 34179281 33549341 33029464 32809755 33109930
33860052 34480038 34909974 34929689 35029426 35129301
35029260 34819243
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