SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151913
KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-152115-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1232
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0213 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN IL...SWRN IND...WRN KY...NWRN TN
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 151913Z - 152115Z
STORMS ARE INCREASING IN COVERAGE. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT...A WATCH MAY BE CONSIDERED.
STORMS ARE INCREASING IN COVERAGE NOW NEAR A LOW DRYLINE/LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH FROM CNTRL IL SWD ALONG THE MS RIVER. HEATING
PERSISTS IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER CONVECTION...AND CAPPING HAS BEEN
REMOVED. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DOES EXIST ACROSS ERN IL INTO SWRN IND
AND CNTRL KY...WITH COOLER AND STABLE AIR TO THE E. THIS IS
RESULTING IN A RATHER NARROW MOIST SECTOR ACROSS CNTRL IL...BUT
WIDENING OVER WRN KY.
LOW LEVEL SHEAR AWAY FROM THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS MEAGER WITH WINDS
VEERING/MIXING. BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND RELATIVELY STRAIGHT
HODOGRAPHS ARE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS CONTAINING LARGE HAIL.
LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS STRONG NEAR THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY BUT THE
EFFECTIVE ZONE WHERE PARCELS WOULD REMAIN UNSTABLE MAY BE QUITE
NARROW. STORMS WOULD HAVE TO TURN SUBSTANTIALLY TO THE RIGHT NEAR
THIS BOUNDARY IN ORDER TO HAVE AN INCREASED TORNADO THREAT.
..JEWELL.. 06/15/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...
LAT...LON 40138842 39268814 38588783 38198729 37758642 37008644
36428704 36378766 36358891 36378921 36568947 36999002
37588989 38258960 39418918 39978909 40218895 40258863
40138842
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