SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191916
TXZ000-OKZ000-192015-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1296
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0216 PM CDT SUN JUN 19 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...WRN OK/TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 191916Z - 192015Z
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...ISOLATED SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE DRYLINE /PRIMARILY OVER WRN TX/ THIS AFTERNOON. SHOULD
GREATER THAN ISOLATED COVERAGE BECOME APPARENT...A WW MAY BE
NECESSARY. DMGG WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH ANY STORM
THAT DEVELOPS...WITH HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE.
ALTHOUGH A STRONG CAP EXISTS /16-17 C AT 700 MB PER 12Z AREA
SOUNDINGS/...ONCE AGAIN HOT TEMPERATURES SURROUNDING THE DRYLINE
/108 F CHILDRESS...105 F LUBBOCK...101 F SNYDER/ WILL GRADUALLY
ERODE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...WITH LAPSE RATES BECOMING DRY
ADIABATIC TO ABOUT 500 MB. SHORT WAVE UPPER RIDGING IS NOW
PROGRESSING EWD...WHILE WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ARE NOW BEGINNING TO
GLANCE THE DRYLINE. 6 KM PROFILE DATA INDICATES A JET MAX /50 TO 60
KT/ PROGRESSING INTO ERN NM AND THE TX PANHANDLE. INCREASINGLY
/ALBEIT SUBTLY/ FAVORABLE UPPER ASCENT IN COMBINATION WITH SURFACE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE APPEARS LIKELY TO SUPPORT AT LEAST
ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT...WITH EXTREMELY FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMICS
SUGGESTING RAPID DEVELOPMENT ONCE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IS OVERCOME.
..HURLBUT.. 06/19/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...MAF...
LAT...LON 32170167 32340233 32790206 33500139 34170100 34670048
34939992 34819950 34419936 33750026 32910084 32170167
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