SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262014
SCZ000-NCZ000-GAZ000-262115-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1404
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0314 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...NRN GA...WRN SC...WRN NC
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 556...
VALID 262014Z - 262115Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 556
CONTINUES.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
EARLIER CONVECTION ARCING FROM THE SRN APPALACHIANS ACROSS NRN GA
AND INTO NRN AL. THE AIR MASS ALONG AND S/SE OF THIS FEATURE HAS
BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE OWING TO SFC TEMPERATURES HAVING WARMED
INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S AMIDST DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE 60S.
VIGOROUS CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE AUGMENTED BY OROGRAPHIC
INFLUENCES OVER HIGHER TERRAIN...AS HAS BEEN NOTED OVER PORTIONS OF
NRN GA. WITH WLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW VERTICALLY VEERING TO NLY BY 3.5 KM
AGL PER ATLANTA VWP...ASSOCIATED WITH SPEEDS OF 15 KT OR LESS WITHIN
THE LOW-TO-MID LEVELS...PULSE CONVECTION WILL OCCUR AND GENERALLY
MOVE EWD/ESEWD...WITH AN ENHANCED FOCUS FOR CONVECTION OCCURRING
NEAR THE RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. DCAPE VALUES OF 1000 TO 1300
J/KG COULD SUPPORT DMGG WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH WET MICROBURSTS.
MEANWHILE...THE ERN FLANK OF A BOWING SQUALL LINE ARCING FROM SRN
PORTIONS OF MIDDLE TN ACROSS NRN AL INTO FAR NERN MS WILL LIKELY
ENTER WRN PORTIONS OF WW 556 AFTER 2100Z. THIS FEATURE WILL PROVIDE
A GREATER THREAT FOR DMGG WIND GUSTS AS IT POSSESSES A MORE
ORGANIZED/LARGER COLD POOL PER RECENT SFC OBSERVATIONS -- I.E.
PRESSURE RISES UP TO 3 MB IN 2 HOURS ACROSS NRN AL. THIS WILL
PARTICULARLY BE THE CASE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE RESIDUAL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY ACROSS NRN GA...WHERE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL PARCEL
BUOYANCY EXISTS.
..COHEN.. 06/26/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...CAE...GSP...FFC...
LAT...LON 33448409 33418477 33638524 34288536 34868507 34918439
34938369 34998261 35578150 35598071 35178051 34398055
33938106 33598204 33568309 33448409
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