SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272007
NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-272130-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1421
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0307 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF NC...NRN SC...FAR SERN VA
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 567...
VALID 272007Z - 272130Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 567
CONTINUES.
FRONTAL CONVERGENCE INVOF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE DRAPED ACROSS FAR SERN
VA AND FAR NRN NC...AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARY...WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE FOCI FOR CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO
SVR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WW567 THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE SEA
BREEZE HAS RECENTLY ACCELERATED WELL INLAND IN RESPONSE TO ATTENDANT
CONVECTION AND MERGING COLD POOLS. MEANWHILE...THE SRN FLANK OF THE
COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION THAT RECENTLY PASSED THROUGH
THE RALEIGH AREA WILL LIKELY MERGE WITH THE AGGREGATE OUTFLOW / SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARY PROPAGATING NWWD TO FAVOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT 30 MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 30 NE FAY TO 35 ESE
RWI DURING THE NEXT HOUR. WHERE CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING HAS NOT
OCCURRED...TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 90S COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S ARE SUPPORTING MLCAPE VALUES OF 3000 TO 3500
J/KG. THIS WILL FOSTER VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS...ALONG WITH A CONTINUED
THREAT FOR SVR STORMS. WET MICROBURSTS...OWING TO STRONG WATER
LOADING SUPPORTED BY PWAT VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.65 INCHES PER GPS
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT...COULD PRODUCE DMGG SFC WINDS...AS
HAVE ALREADY BEEN REPORTED WITH STORMS EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL PARTICULARLY BE THE CASE WHERE STORM CLUSTERS BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED IN RESPONSE TO MERGING COLD POOLS. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL
WILL ALSO BE OF CONCERN GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY. THE
AFOREMENTIONED PWAT VALUES COULD SUPPORT RAINFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF
1.5 INCHES PER HOUR.
ADDITIONALLY...INTENSE CONVECTION DEVELOPED EARLIER WEST OF WW567
OVER THE SRN APPALACHIANS IN RESPONSE TO OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS
COINCIDENT WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY. WHILE THIS ACTIVITY COULD
BRIEFLY POSE AN ISOLATED SVR THREAT...THIS THREAT WILL LIKELY BE
MITIGATED AS IT IMPINGES ON A MINIMUM IN MLCAPE BETWEEN THE ACTIVITY
AND THE WRN FRINGES OF WW567. AS SUCH...WWD EXPANSION OF WW567 IS
NOT NECESSARY.
..COHEN.. 06/27/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...CAE...GSP...
LAT...LON 35908232 35948107 36107928 36457798 36547728 36927681
36917638 36587593 35937556 35207549 34287716 33897781
33647871 33717929 33817932 34537964 34698023 34678127
34558174 34458218 34628267 35278271 35908232
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