SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272017
VAZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-272145-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1422
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0317 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...KY...VA...TN...NC
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 272017Z - 272145Z
A NEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN
KY/TN AND PERHAPS EXTREME SWRN VA AND WRN NC. THESE AREAS ARE BEING
MONITORED FOR INCREASING STORM ACTIVITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
A BROKEN N-S BAND OF STORMS HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST 1-2 HOURS
AHEAD OF THE DECAYING/WEAKENING MCS IN WATCH 566. THESE STORMS ARE
OCCURRING IN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ON THE EDGE OF THE
STRONGER CAPPING INVERSION/EML ORIGINATING OVER THE PLAINS/MS
VALLEY. IT APPEARS THAT THE RECENT DEVELOPMENT MAY BE A RESULT OF
HEATING AND LARGER SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCV/NRN SHORT
WAVE TROUGH AIDING IN THE ELIMINATION OF REMAINING INHIBITION.
STRONGER DEEP-LAYER WLY FLOW RESIDES FARTHER WEST...HOWEVER...AND
THIS MAY BE LIMITING GREATER STORM ORGANIZATION AT THIS TIME. IF THE
BELT OF STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW CAN CATCH UP TO THE ONGOING CONVECTION
AND DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS CONTINUES TO UNDERGO DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF
EXPANDING CONVECTIVE COLD POOL...GREATER STORM
PERSISTENCE/ORGANIZATION MAY ENSUE. IF THIS PROCESS APPEARS TO BE
OCCURRING THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON OR INTO EARLY EVENING...A WATCH
WILL BE POSSIBLE.
..CARBIN.. 06/27/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...FFC...LMK...OHX...
HUN...
LAT...LON 37598443 38108396 37698234 37088172 36408169 35858285
35268394 35008456 34798501 34708543 34698565 34918598
35438586 37598443
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