SWOMCD
SPC MCD 302019
NEZ000-SDZ000-WYZ000-302115-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1453
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0319 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...NCNTRL/WRN NEB...SWRN/SCNTRL SD AND NERN WY
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 302019Z - 302115Z
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH COVERING PORTIONS OF NERN WY...SWRN/SCNTRL
SD AND NCNTRL/WRN NEB IS LIKELY...GREATER THAN 80 PERCENT
PROBABILITY. PRIMARY SVR THREATS THROUGH MID-EVENING WILL BE
SVR/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.
HIGH-PLAINS CONVECTION HAS BEEN INCREASING STEADILY ACROSS ERN WY
AND WRN NEB PANHANDLE AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STRONGLY HEATS AND
UPSLOPE FLOW BECOMES ENHANCED BY AN APPROACHING UPPER LOW. PRIMARY
CONCERN IS FOR THIS ACTIVITY...AND ADDITIONAL STORMS...WILL BEGIN TO
IMPACT AREAS ON THE LOWER PLAINS/BLACK HILLS REGION WITH TIME.
LATEST MESOANALYSIS PLACES ONE SFC BOUNDARY ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS
REGION ENE INTO NCNTRL SD AND SECOND WIND SHIFT FROM EAST OF THE
CHAMBERLAIN SD AREA INTO THE WRN NEB PANHANDLE. AIR MASS HAS BECOME
UNSTABLE NEAR THESE BOUNDARIES WITH MLCAPES OF 1500-2500
J/KG...THOUGH MODIFICATION OF THE RAPID CITY RAOB SUGGESTS A
SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF CINH STILL EXISTS ON THE LOWER PLAINS.
SUSPECT THAT AS ASCENT CONTINUES TO INCREASE...HIGH-BASED STORMS
WILL GRADUALLY GROW UPSCALE INTO BOWING SEGMENTS/ISOLD SUPERCELLS
ALONG/BETWEEN AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARIES AND ALONG THE BLACK HILLS.
GIVEN INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR/ENHANCED CHANNEL OF SWLY MID-LEVEL
FLOW ASSOCD WITH THE LOW...SVR/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE
THE PRIMARY RISKS.
..RACY.. 06/30/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...ABR...LBF...UNR...
LAT...LON 44340548 44560171 43450046 42450020 41620039 41240076
41180183 41810222 42960240 43390336 43770536 44340548
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