WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 462

WWUS20 KWNS 111810
SEL2
SPC WW 111810
COZ000-NMZ000-OKZ000-120100-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 462
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1210 PM MDT SAT JUN 11 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHEAST COLORADO
EXTREME NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO
THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1210 PM UNTIL
700 PM MDT.

HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES NORTH OF LA
JUNTA COLORADO TO 55 MILES EAST OF RATON NEW MEXICO. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE OFF THE HIGH
TERRAIN NEAR RATON AND TRINIDAD IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS
SURFACE HEATING DESTABILIZES THE HIGH PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NRN NM. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BECOME FAVORABLE
FOR SUPERCELLS DURING THE AFTERNOON...WHILE THE STEEP LAPSE RATES
AND MLCAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG WILL SUPPORT A RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND
ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS. RELATIVELY LARGE TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT
SPREADS SUGGEST THAT THE TORNADO THREAT SHOULD REMAIN RATHER
LIMITED.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 28020.

...THOMPSON

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