Friday, July 1, 2011

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1462

ACUS11 KWNS 012047
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012047
NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-012145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1462
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0347 PM CDT FRI JUL 01 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SERN WY...NEB PANHANDLE...FAR NERN CO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 012047Z - 012145Z

A WEAK IMPULSE EMBEDDED IN MIDLEVEL WLYS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF SERN WY AND INTO FAR NERN CO
AND THE NEB PANHANDLE. DUE TO THE ISOLATED/MARGINAL SVR THREAT...A
WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

RECENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A COMPACT BUT STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
FAR SERN WY...EXHIBITING SOME POTENTIAL FOR MARGINALLY SVR HAIL AND
STRONG WINDS. ALTHOUGH THE AIR MASS DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS CONVECTION
IS POST-FRONTAL /CHARACTERIZED BY SOMEWHAT COOL SFC TEMPERATURES IN
THE 70S-80S/...BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES OF
6-7 DEG C/KM ARE SUFFICIENT TO YIELD MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500
J/KG. THIS...ALONG WITH 700-500 MB LAYER FLOW AROUND 30 KTS...SHOULD
SUPPORT ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH MARGINALLY
ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL AND STRONG
WINDS...WITH SOME POSSIBLY APPROACHING SVR LIMITS.

..ROGERS.. 07/01/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON 40970188 40820267 40910374 41180451 41760482 42170461
42490388 42590297 42500212 42110165 41720158 40970188

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