Saturday, July 2, 2011

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1472

ACUS11 KWNS 022158
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022157
AZZ000-022300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1472
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0457 PM CDT SAT JUL 02 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL AZ

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 022157Z - 022300Z

POTENTIAL FOR A DRY MICROBURST OR TWO APPEARS TO BE INCREASING
ACROSS S-CNTRL AZ --INCLUDING THE GREATER PHOENIX METRO-- LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. STORMS THAT DEVELOP/DECAY MAY
POSE AN ISOLD DMGG WIND RISK. VERY ISOLD NATURE OF THREAT WILL
PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR SEVERE TSTM WATCH CONSIDERATION.

SURFACE/SATELLITE COMPOSITE SHOWS HOT TEMPS IN THE 110S ACROSS THE
LOWER DESERTS S OF THE MOGOLLON RIM. DEEPENING CONVECTION/STORMS
ARE PROPAGATING WWD FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN TOWARDS S-CNTRL AZ.
GIVEN THE HOT SURFACE TEMPS AND MARGINAL MOISTURE...SURFACE T/TD
SPREADS OF OVER 70 DEG F HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
THIS HAS RESULTED IN A DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE FROM THE SURFACE TO
MID LEVELS...WHICH WILL BE VERY CONDUCIVE FOR DOWNDRAFT TRANSPORT.
MAIN LIMITING FACTORS FOR A MORE APPRECIABLE DMGG WIND THREAT ARE 1)
LACK OF RICHER MOISTURE 2) WEAK TROPOSPHERIC FLOW. DESPITE THOSE
FACTORS...KIWA 88D IMAGERY DISPLAYED A MICROBURST SIGNATURE NEAR THE
PINAL/MARICOPA COUNTY LINE IN THE PAST HOUR AND AN ELONGATED COLD
POOL SURGING WWD OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. EXPECT A GRADUAL INCREASE
IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING
HOURS AS STORMS/COLD POOLS MOVE WWD TOWARDS THE I-17 CORRIDOR NEAR
AND N OF THE PHX METRO.

..SMITH.. 07/02/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...

LAT...LON 33051222 33871248 34751219 34921183 34481117 33901034
33551036 33001088 32911139 33051222

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