SWOMCD
SPC MCD 032000
KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-032100-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1485
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0300 PM CDT SUN JUL 03 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL KS...NWRN OK...FAR NERN TX PANHANDLE
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 032000Z - 032100Z
AN ISOLD THREAT FOR DMGG WIND GUSTS WILL EXIST OVER PORTIONS OF
CNTRL KS SWWD INTO NWRN OK. LIMITED TSTM ORGANIZATION AND THE
MARGINAL NATURE OF THE SVR THREAT SHOULD PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WW.
RECENT RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES TSTMS HAVE INCREASED IN COVERAGE
ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT ANCHORED ACROSS CNTRL KS AS CINH HAS ERODED
OVER THE PAST COUPLE HRS. ADDITIONAL TSTMS HAVE FORMED SWWD INTO
NWRN OK ALONG A WEAK ZONE OF CONFLUENT SFC FLOW. A VERY
HOT/WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER HAS DEVELOPED AS AMPLE SOLAR
INSOLATION HAS YIELDED TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S-LOWER 100S.
STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SFC T-TD SPREADS NEAR 40 DEG F WILL
SUPPORT A THREAT FOR DMGG DOWNBURST WINDS. TSTM MODE SHOULD FAVOR
WEAKLY ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS /GIVEN LOWER-MID TROPOSPHERIC
FLOW OF 15-20 KTS AND TENDENCY FOR STRONG COLD POOL FORMATION/
PROPAGATING TOWARDS THE ESE.
..ROGERS.. 07/03/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...
LAT...LON 37859550 36799761 36159894 35989992 36300090 37080095
37749957 38329824 38749683 38459619 37859550
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