SWOMCD
SPC MCD 032035
INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-032130-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1486
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0335 PM CDT SUN JUL 03 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...E-CNTRL MO....SRN IL
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 588...
VALID 032035Z - 032130Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 588
CONTINUES.
AN ELONGATED CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS ERUPTED ALONG A STATIONARY
COLD FRONT POSITIONED ACROSS CNTRL MO INTO SRN IL. DUE TO WEAK
EFFECTIVE SHEAR...THUNDERSTORM ORGANIZATION HAS REMAINED
LIMITED/CHAOTIC WITH SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES NOTED ON 0.5 DEG
KLSX BASE REFLECTIVITY. NEVERTHELESS...VERY RICH BOUNDARY LAYER
THETA-E CONTINUES TO AID IN A THREAT FOR DMGG WIND GUSTS /PRIMARILY
IN THE FORM OF WET DOWNBURSTS/ AND LARGE HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST
CORES. AN ADDITIONAL CLUSTER OF TSTMS OVER W-CNTRL MO NEAR A REMNANT
MCV FROM EARLIER CONVECTION IS ALSO PROGRESSING EWD TOWARDS WRN
PORTIONS OF THE ST LOUIS METRO AREA. IN ADDITION TO DMGG WIND GUSTS
AND LARGE HAIL...TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO LIKELY WITH THESE TSTMS
WITH PWAT VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.7 INCHES AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
VECTORS PARALLEL TO THE STATIONARY FRONT.
..ROGERS.. 07/03/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...SGF...EAX...
LAT...LON 37929240 39399239 39438766 37988762 37929240
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