MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1500

ACUS11 KWNS 041957
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041957
AZZ000-042100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1500
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0257 PM CDT MON JUL 04 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL...CNTRL AND ERN AZ

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 041957Z - 042100Z

TSTM COVERAGE SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SERN/ERN AZ...WITH AN ACCOMPANYING
POTENTIAL FOR DMGG WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. A WW IS NOT
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED DUE TO THE EXPECTED ISOLD NATURE OF THE SVR
THREAT...BUT CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP TRENDS INDICATE GROWING TCU/CB FIELDS OVER
THE MOGOLLON RIM AND HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF ERN/SERN AZ. RICH
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
/CHARACTERIZED BY PWAT VALUES OF 1.7-1.9 INCH PER GPS-PW SENSORS/
AND IS SUPPORTING A RESERVOIR OF MLCAPE VALUES EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG
OVER THE LOWER DESERTS. MEANWHILE...MCV FROM REMNANT CONVECTION OVER
SONORA IS PROGRESSING NNW OVER THE GULF OF CA...AND POSSIBLY AIDED
IN THE INITIATION OF AN ISOLATED STRONG TSTM OVER WRN PIMA COUNTY.
CURRENT TRENDS ARE THAT ACTIVITY OVER THE SWRN AZ LOWER DESERTS
SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS.

WITH TIME...INCREASING AREAL COVERAGE OF TSTMS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF E-CNTRL AND SERN AZ SHOULD GENERATE ONE OR MORE COLD
POOLS THAT WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE LOWER DESERTS /WITH ESE MIDLEVEL
FLOW NEAR 20 KTS IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER/. AS CINH CONTINUES TO
ERODE WITH FURTHER HEATING...THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD REMAIN
SUPPORTIVE FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THE PRIMARY THREAT
WILL LIKELY BE WET DOWNBURSTS /OWING TO PRECIP LOADING/. CONVECTION
SHOULD BE ABLE TO ORGANIZE INTO MULTICELL CLUSTERS WITH TIME OWING
TO STRONGER THAN TYPICAL EFFECTIVE WIND SHEAR...BUT IT IS UNCLEAR IF
AN ORGANIZED WIND THREAT WILL MATERIALIZE.

..ROGERS.. 07/04/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...

LAT...LON 32171383 32651366 33901304 34381213 34681124 34501025
33860935 33160918 31940923 31310966 31331105 32171383

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