SWOMCD
SPC MCD 102225
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-110000-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1562
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0525 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME SERN ND...NERN SD...CNTRL/SRN MN
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 617...
VALID 102225Z - 110000Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 617 CONTINUES.
DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLD TORNADOES RISKS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH A HIGH WIND/HAIL
THREAT EXTENDING DOWNSTREAM INTO CNTRL/SRN MN LATER. AN ADDITIONAL
WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR AT LEAST CNTRL/SRN MN AFTER 23Z.
SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOPED ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND WITHIN EXIT
REGION OF A 100+ KT H25 JET HAVE EVOLVED INTO A LINEAR...FORWARD
PROPAGATING MCS. SYSTEM IS MOVING ESE AT AROUND 45-50 KTS AND IS
EXTRAPOLATED TO THE ERN EDGE OF TORNADO WATCH 617 IN WCNTRL MN BY
00Z. 18Z NAM AND VARIETY OF CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS HAVE A GOOD
HANDLE ON LOCATION/TIMING OF CURRENT ACTIVITY.
DOWNSTREAM...A CORRIDOR OF 70+ DEG F BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS AND
STRONG HEATING HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO A RESERVOIR OF MLCAPES IN EXCESS
OF 4000 J/KG OVER THE CORN BELT. THE MCS WILL TRACK ALONG NRN
PERIPHERY OF THE INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS CNTRL/SRN MN LATER THIS
EVENING WITH THE TRAILING BAND SKIRTING ACROSS NERN SD. WOOD LAKE
PROFILER SHOWS ONLY WEAK SELY INFLOW...BUT STRONG COLD POOL
GENERATION...MAGNITUDE OF LLVL MOISTURE AND 45+ KTS OF MID-LEVEL WLY
FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT A CONTINUATION OF STORMS THROUGH LATE THIS
EVENING.
..RACY.. 07/10/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...
LAT...LON 46030049 46410004 46589867 46789810 47039738 46909646
46259435 45869336 45149297 44819299 44299312 43939355
44209530 44309618 44719818 45250129 46030049
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