MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1606

ACUS11 KWNS 132024
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 132023
KSZ000-COZ000-NEZ000-WYZ000-132230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1606
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0323 PM CDT WED JUL 13 2011

AREAS AFFECTED.....EXTREME SERN WY/CO FRONT RANGE AND ADJACENT HIGH
PLAINS...

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 132023Z - 132230Z

STORMS ARE STARTING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE WITH AN
INCREASE IN STORM DEVELOPMENT AND INTENSITY EXPECTED OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONE AS THE
ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TRENDS IN
CONVECTIVE INTENSITY AND COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR
A POSSIBLE WW.

WHILE THE CO HIGH PLAINS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO DESTABILIZE GIVEN
EXTENSIVE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING...MODERATELY UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE REGION GIVEN SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN
THE 60S WITH AN AXIS OF HIGHER INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. THE TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING NEWD THROUGH
NERN CO /AS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/ DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE IDEAL
FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER...SOME
OROGRAPHICALLY INDUCED STORM DEVELOPMENT IS STILL EXPECTED GIVEN
WEAK UPSLOPE SURFACE FLOW AND STRONG SURFACE HEATING.

STORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP WILL BE IN THE PRESENCE OF
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AROUND 30 KTS...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR STORM
ORGANIZATION INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY OF SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. THE
PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THOUGH A
BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED GIVEN THE VEERING LOW-LEVEL WIND
PROFILE.

..JIRAK.. 07/13/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON 41070354 40750341 40440325 40250316 40050306 39880275
39770261 39560227 39570191 39530174 39470129 39480098
39380072 39270062 39080050 38900057 38740079 38580115
38480154 38380186 38300271 38210356 38170408 38200449
38280476 38440475 38660476 39910533 40400536 40830525
41190518 41390493 41460462 41450445 41390431 41320413
41200378 41070354

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