SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142255
KSZ000-NEZ000-142330-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1617
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0555 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN-NRN KS/SWRN-SRN NEB
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 142255Z - 142330Z
A NEW SEVERE TSTM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS NWRN-NRN KS AND
SWRN-SRN NEB...TO THE EAST OF WW 643.
REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A SMALL CLUSTER OF TSTMS HAD DEVELOPED
SINCE 21Z OVER NWRN KS /THE COUNTIES OF SHERIDAN...
GRAHAM...NORTON...AND ERN DECATUR/. THIS ACTIVITY WAS FORMING ALONG
AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE PER OBJECTIVE ANALYSES AND WITHIN A
WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER GIVEN STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND WEAKENED
INHIBITION. ASCENT ATTENDANT TO A MIDLEVEL IMPULSE TRACKING ENEWD
ACROSS ERN CO AND AN APPARENT LEAD IMPULSE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH
SWRN NEB/NWRN KS APPEAR TO BE AIDING DEVELOPMENT OF THE NWRN KS
STORMS. A MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH NNEWD EXTENT TOWARD CENTRAL
NEB AND NORTH CENTRAL KS AND STRONGER EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR /AROUND
30 KT/ SUGGESTS THE ONGOING STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE AS THEY MOVE
INTO A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SUSTAINED ROBUST...ORGANIZED
UPDRAFTS. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR INTENSIFICATION
AND THE POTENTIAL NEED FOR A WATCH.
..PETERS.. 07/14/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...
LAT...LON 39040038 39210129 40750080 41290005 41179908 40279889
39179911 38949927 39040038
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