SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162053
SDZ000-NDZ000-162230-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1633
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0353 PM CDT SAT JUL 16 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF N CNTRL SOUTH DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 162053Z - 162230Z
THE NEED FOR A WATCH APPEARS LIKELY AT SOME POINT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR EVENING...PERHAPS WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.
THE FOCUS AND FORCING FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON
REMAIN A BIT UNCERTAIN. THE CONVECTIVELY GENERATED OR ENHANCED
BOUNDARY FROM THIS MORNING HAS BECOME LESS WELL DEFINED ...AND
MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE GENERALLY RISING. HOWEVER...AN AXIS OF
STRONGER SURFACE HEATING HAS OCCURRED SOUTHEAST OF THE BLACK HILLS
INTO THE VICINITY OF BISMARCK...WHERE SURFACE DEW POINTS HAVE
REACHED THE MID/UPPER 70S. BENEATH STEEP LAPSE RATES...THIS HAS
CONTRIBUTED TO LARGE CAPE IN EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG...WITH INHIBITION
BECOMING INCREASINGLY NEGLIGIBLE.
LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION CURRENTLY APPEARS MAXIMIZED ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND SEEMS TO OFFER THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR
STORM DEVELOPMENT...A BIT TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE HIGH RESOLUTION
RAPID REFRESH HAS SUGGESTED THE INITIATION OF STORMS DURING THE
21-23Z TIME FRAME. WHILE UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN... POTENTIAL FOR
RAPID DEVELOPMENT AND INTENSIFICATION EXISTS IN THE PRESENCE OF
SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. ACTIVITY MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY
VERY LARGE HAIL AND THE RISK FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO.
..KERR.. 07/16/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...
LAT...LON 47030168 47670039 47179895 46289823 45409846 44359918
44440078 45240118 45920180 47030168
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment