MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1669

ACUS11 KWNS 202141
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202141
MEZ000-202315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1669
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0441 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MAINE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 202141Z - 202315Z

STRONG CONVECTION WILL CROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...AND COULD POSE A THREAT FOR STRONG OR
POSSIBLY SVR WIND GUSTS ACROSS NRN MAINE INTO EARLY EVENING.
CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR THE POTENTIAL ISSUANCE OF A
SVR TSTM WATCH.

A BROKEN SQUALL LINE OVER SRN QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SEWD
TOWARD THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS...WITH THE CURRENT TRACK TAKING IT ACROSS THE BORDER AROUND
22Z. MARGINAL INSTABILITY COULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR ROBUST
UPDRAFTS...THOUGH STRONG DEEP-LAYER WIND SHEAR -- EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR MAGNITUDES OF 40 TO 50 KT -- COULD COMPENSATE IN MAINTAINING
CONVECTION INTO THE EVENING. WHILE COORDINATION WITH THE MONTREAL
OFFICE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA INDICATES A LACK OF SVR REPORTS THUS
FAR...DMGG WIND GUSTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS THE ACTIVITY CROSSES
NRN MAINE AND THE GLANCING EFFECTS OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER SERN
CA ARE MANIFESTED BY SOME INCREASE IN FORCING FOR ASCENT.

..COHEN.. 07/20/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...

LAT...LON 46736780 46206837 45796953 45897026 46357021 46866989
47446926 47446840 47306786 47156773 46736780

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