SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202226
OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-210000-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1670
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0526 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN OH...CNTRL/ERN IND...NRN KY
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 202226Z - 210000Z
A FEW STORMS COULD CONTAIN STRONG WIND GUSTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
OHIO VALLEY REGION INTO EARLY EVENING. WHILE AN INSTANCE OR TWO OF
DMGG WIND GUSTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...THE SPATIOTEMPORAL SVR THREAT
IS TOO LOW TO NECESSITATE THE ISSUANCE OF A WW.
LATE AFTERNOON SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS A RATHER NONDESCRIPT PRESSURE
PATTERN...AS CONFIRMED BY THE LACK OF MORE SALIENT BOUNDARIES IN
RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES. NEVERTHELESS...SUBTLE CONVERGENCE
WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND WEAK MLCINH EARLIER SUPPORTED THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION. MLCAPE
VALUES OF 3000 TO 5500 J/KG...OWING TO PRE-CONVECTIVE SFC
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 90S COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOWER/MIDDLE 70S...WILL SUPPORT VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS WITH THIS ACTIVITY
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. AS STORMS COLLAPSE...THEY WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES REMAIN STEEP AND AMPLE DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE -- PWAT VALUES
AROUND 2 INCHES PER GPS DATA -- SUPPORT WATER LOADING PROCESSES.
HOWEVER...WITH INDIANAPOLIS IND AND WILMINGTON OH VWP DATA
INDICATING GENERALLY WEAK FLOW THROUGH THE LOWER/MIDDLE
TROPOSPHERE...CONVECTION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT PULSE
CHARACTERISTICS. AFTER 00Z...STABILIZATION DUE TO NOCTURNAL COOLING
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING TREND FOR ANY ONGOING
CONVECTION.
..COHEN.. 07/20/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...JKL...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...
LAT...LON 40678634 40948497 40818349 40558225 40018173 38948215
38158325 37878457 38138608 38648690 39558701 40678634
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment