Thursday, July 21, 2011

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1673

ACUS11 KWNS 210714
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 210714
IAZ000-NEZ000-210915-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1673
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0214 AM CDT THU JUL 21 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEB...EXTREME WRN IA

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL

VALID 210714Z - 210915Z

TSTMS ORIENTED ALONG A SW-NE AXIS OVER ERN NEB HAVE POTENTIAL TO
CONTINUE TRAINING WITH REPEAT CELLS MOVING OVER THE SAME
LOCATIONS...RESULTING IN A PRIMARY THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL RATES
OF 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR.

STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN A BAND FROM HOWARD AND GREELEY CNTYS NEWD
INTO BURT CNTY...NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT WHERE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET IS
MAXIMIZED. AIR MASS IS VERY MOIST WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
NEAR 2 INCHES...AND DEEP LAYER SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PROMOTE SLOW
NEWD CELL MOVEMENT. THE CONVECTIVE BAND MAY BACK BUILD INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL NEB EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE LLJ IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
LARGELY STATIONARY THROUGH 12Z...WITH CELLS MOVING NEWD ACROSS AREAS
ALREADY TRAVERSED BY PREVIOUS STORMS. RAINFALL RATES OF 1-2 INCHES
PER HR WILL BE COMMON WITHIN THE BAND. IN ADDITION...THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER CELLS TO BRIEFLY PRODUCE MARGINAL HAIL...BUT
RELATIVELY HIGH WBZ LEVELS SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL LARGE HAIL THREAT.

..WEISS.. 07/21/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...

LAT...LON 41599871 41929803 42159719 42359644 42369577 42099547
41839556 41629666 41469745 41249804 40959839 40719889
40789918 40949926 41599871

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