SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232217
NCZ000-VAZ000-232345-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1712
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0517 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN VA/ERN NC
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 232217Z - 232345Z
THE THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
WHILE A FEW INSTANCES OF DMGG WIND GUSTS EMANATING FROM WET
MICROBURSTS MAY OCCUR...THE ISOLATED NATURE OF ANY SVR THREAT WILL
PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WW.
A HIGH-PWAT ENVIRONMENT -- PWAT VALUES OF AROUND 2.0-2.2 INCHES PER
GPS DATA -- EXISTS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN OF VA/NC.
THESE PWAT VALUES...IN CONJUNCTION WITH A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR
MASS...WILL CONTINUE TO FOSTER SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS CONVECTION
GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE AREA. A
NOTABLE BOUNDARY COLLISION FROM WARREN COUNTY TO RICHMOND COUNTY
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN
NC...WHILE A SEWD-SURGING BOUNDARY SUPPORTS CONVECTION INTO PORTIONS
OF SERN VA. STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OUTSIDE OF
CONVECTION...OWING TO SFC TEMPERATURES FROM 95 TO 102 DEGREES...WILL
SUPPORT WET MICROBURSTS...AIDED BY WATER LOADING PROCESS. WITH AREA
VWP DATA DEPICTING GENERALLY LESS THAN 20 KT OF FLOW THROUGH THE
LOWER/MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO EXHIBIT PULSE
CHARACTERISTICS...WITH A NOTABLE WEAKENING TREND AFTER 00Z WHEN
NOCTURNAL COOLING COMMENCES. ALSO OF NOTE...RAINFALL RATES IN EXCESS
OF 1-2 IN/HR WILL BE A CONCERN...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS WHERE
CONVECTION EXHIBITS LITTLE MOTION.
..COHEN.. 07/23/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...ILM...RNK...
LAT...LON 34837943 36038004 36967990 37597941 37837826 37717685
36517642 35287653 34467742 34387852 34837943
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