MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1714

ACUS11 KWNS 232306
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232306
OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-240100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1714
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0606 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN OH...NRN IND...FAR SRN LOWER MI

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL

VALID 232306Z - 240100Z

HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH RATES AOA 2 IN/HR...WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE EVENING...AS CONVECTION TRAINS ACROSS THE AREA.

A ZONE OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS CONVECTION -- WITH AN AXIS LYING
JUST SOUTH OF THE BORDER OF SRN LOWER MI -- IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY
SHIFT EWD. THIS WILL OCCUR WHILE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION REGENERATES
ACROSS A LOCALIZED ZONE OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT ATOP A CONVECTIVELY
REINFORCED COLD POOL IN NWRN OH. WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY FLOW OF 20
TO 35 KT /ORIENTED NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE AFOREMENTIONED AXIS/
WITHIN THE CLOUD-BEARING LAYER PER NORTH WEBSTER IND AND DETROIT MI
VWP DATA...CONVECTIVE TRAINING WILL BE LIKELY. THIS WILL OCCUR AS
THE ACTIVITY SPREADS INTO N-CNTRL OH THROUGH 00Z AND EVENTUALLY INTO
PARTS OF NERN OH LATER IN THE EVENING. ADDITIONALLY...CANCELLATION
EFFECTS BETWEEN STORM PROPAGATION AND ADVECTION OVER NWRN OH COULD
LEAD TO VERY SLOW STORM MOTIONS NEAR AND E/NE OF THE FINDLAY AREA.
ALSO...COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH GPS DATA INDICATING PWAT VALUES OF 2 TO 2.25 INCHES
ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA. GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED
FACTORS...RAINFALL RATES OF 2 IN/HR WILL BE A CONCERN THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DEEPEST CONVECTIVE CORES. A DMGG WIND GUST OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...GIVEN WATER-LOADING EFFECTS...THOUGH THIS THREAT WILL BE VERY
ISOLATED.

..COHEN.. 07/23/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...IWX...

LAT...LON 41058110 40848203 40898354 41288468 41258527 41148633
41478665 41818581 41908383 41788219 41608116 41058110

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