SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242226
MNZ000-NDZ000-SDZ000-250000-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1725
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0526 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTH DAKOTA
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 681...
VALID 242226Z - 250000Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 681
CONTINUES.
HOWEVER...THE SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN DIMINISHING WITHIN
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...AND A NEW WW LIKELY WILL NOT BE NEEDED.
AIDED BY 30-40 KT DEEP LAYER WEST NORTHWESTERLY MEAN FLOW...STRONG
/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE GRADUALLY DEVELOPING
EAST OF AN AXIS OF STRONGER DESTABILIZATION ASSOCIATED WITH A
CORRIDOR OF WEAK RETURN FLOW EMANATING FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
A FEW STORMS LINGER WITHIN THE INSTABILITY AXIS...WHICH EXTENDS
ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE FROM SOUTHWEST OF DICKINSON THROUGH AREAS
NORTHWEST OF GRAND FORKS. BUT OUTFLOW FROM CONVECTION...AND A
DRYING NORTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
PASSING BY TO THE NORTHEAST...WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY STABILIZE
THE BOUNDARY LAYER LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT NEW STORM
DEVELOPMENT PROBABLY WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH BY 00-01Z...AND ONGOING
ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT INGESTS DRIER AIR WHILE
APPROACHING SOUTHERN/EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH.
..KERR.. 07/24/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...UNR...
LAT...LON 46490375 47240186 48109929 48509774 48119711 47459698
46659691 46299879 46010129 45870328 45970398 46160388
46490375
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