MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1738

ACUS11 KWNS 252142
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252142
NJZ000-PAZ000-252245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1738
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0442 PM CDT MON JUL 25 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL/ERN PA...WRN NJ

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 683...

VALID 252142Z - 252245Z

A FEW STORMS IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN ENE/WSW-ORIENTED SQUALL LINE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF S-CNTRL/ERN PA AND WRN NJ COULD PRODUCE DMGG WIND
GUSTS DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. GIVEN THAT THIS THREAT WILL
REMAIN ISOLATED IN COVERAGE AND BRIEF IN DURATION...AN ADDITIONAL WW
TO THE SE OF WW683 WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

RADAR MOSAIC IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE STRONGEST PORTION OF A SQUALL
LINE STRETCHING FROM NERN PA INTO CNTRL PA IS CONFINED TO AREAS FROM
LUZERNE COUNTY TO NORTHUMBERLAND COUNTY. IN THIS REGION...RELATIVELY
STRONGER DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS SUPPORTING GREATER STORM ORGANIZATION
AND OCCASIONAL BOWING STRUCTURES. A FEW INSTANCES OF DMGG WINDS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS CONVECTION MOVES ACROSS FAR ERN PA INTO WRN
NJ. HOWEVER...THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY WEAKEN SHORTLY AS IT
ENCOUNTERS A RAIN-COOLED AIR MASS WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE
LOWER/MIDDLE 70S SUPPORTING VERY LIMITED INSTABILITY.

THE AFOREMENTIONED LINE IS MORE BROKEN AS IT TRAILS WSWWD INTO
PORTIONS OF S-CNTRL PA...WHERE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS LACKING. SOME AIR
MASS RECOVERY HAS OCCURRED AFTER EARLIER PRECIPITATION RESULTING IN
MLCAPE VALUES OF 500 TO LOCALLY 1000 J/KG. HOWEVER...WAVE CLOUDS
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN ARE INDICATIVE OF SOME REMAINING CINH LEFT
BEHIND BY EARLIER CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING...WHICH WILL LIKELY
MITIGATE THE SVR POTENTIAL WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

..COHEN.. 07/25/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...CTP...PBZ...

LAT...LON 39877879 40267938 40487906 40707817 41207661 41457502
40867452 40237488 39877601 39787737 39877879

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