SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262217
MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-VTZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-PAZ000-262315-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1755
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0517 PM CDT TUE JUL 26 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...NERN PA...SERN NY...CT...RI...MA...VT...NH...WRN ME
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 686...687...
VALID 262217Z - 262315Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
686...687...CONTINUES.
CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO SVR STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE EWD INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. STORMS IN ERN SECTIONS OF WW686 ARE EXPECTED TO
HAVE CROSSED INTO WW687 BY 23Z...AND THUS VALID PORTIONS OF WW686
WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 23Z. A RELATIVELY NARROW CORRIDOR OF
MODERATE INSTABILITY IS FOUND BETWEEN A COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACK MOUNTAINS AND MOHAWK VALLEY...AND A WARM
FRONT LYING ACROSS WRN MAINE. MODERATE MID-LEVEL FLOW IN THE BASE OF
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PIVOTING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND IS CONTRIBUTING TO
0-6-KM BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES AROUND 40 KT PER TAUNTON MA AND GRAY ME
VWP DATA...WITH SIMILAR DEEP-LAYER SHEAR MAGNITUDES ELSEWHERE ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE TO FOSTER MULTICELL
CLUSTERS AND BOWING LINE SEGMENTS ACROSS THE AREA...AS 500-MB HEIGHT
FALLS AROUND 30 METERS PER 12 HOURS OVERLAY THE REGION IN
ASSOCIATION WITH DEEP-LAYER ASCENT ATTENDANT TO THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. WW687 HAS BEEN EXPANDED EWD IN COORDINATION WITH THE TAUNTON
MA WFO...AS A BOWING LINE SEGMENT APPROACHES THE COAST OF SRN RI/CT.
AS STORMS APPROACH COASTAL AREAS...MLCINH OFFERED BY THE INLAND
ADVECTION OF THE STABLE MARINE LAYER COULD MITIGATE THE SVR
POTENTIAL TO SOME DEGREE. NEVERTHELESS...DOWNDRAFTS IN ASSOCIATION
WITH MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND STRONGER COLD POOLS MAY BE ABLE
TO PENETRATE THE STABLE LAYER.
..COHEN.. 07/26/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...BGM...
LAT...LON 40977255 41087366 41347450 41667533 42007503 41947395
42417325 43227299 43797373 44607302 45607127 46087022
45576938 42947040 41567085 40977255
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