SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272354
ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-280100-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1767
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0654 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...NRN IL...FAR SRN WI...E-CNTRL IA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 272354Z - 280100Z
CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW...WITH A
PRIMARY THREAT OF DMGG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...AND PERHAPS AN
ISOLATED TORNADO.
CLUSTER OF STORMS HAS INTENSIFIED IN THE PAST HR NEAR KDBQ ALONG A
SLOW-MOVING WARM FRONT AS A REMNANT MCV SHIFTS EWD ACROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN. AREAL COVERAGE HAS PROBABLY BEEN LIMITED THUS FAR BY
SHORTWAVE UPPER RIDGING OVERHEAD AND WARM MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES.
HOWEVER...PWAT VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES /PER 00Z GPS-IPW DATA/
AND VERY RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IN PLACE HAS AIDED IN EXTREME
INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 4000 J/KG...AND SHOULD
SUPPORT FURTHER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT/MAINTENANCE THROUGH THE NEXT
SEVERAL HRS. ALTHOUGH CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN DUE
TO SUBTLE FORCING MECHANISMS IN PLACE...MODERATELY STRONG MIDLEVEL
FLOW /E.G. 40 KTS AT 500 MB/ ALONG WITH VEERING LOW-LEVEL WIND
PROFILES COULD SUPPORT AN ORGANIZED SVR THREAT ACROSS NRN IL SHOULD
CONVECTIVE TRENDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE. PRIMARY THREATS ATTM APPEAR
TO BE LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WINDS...THOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT
BE RULED OUT.
..ROGERS.. 07/27/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...
LAT...LON 41598811 41608922 41989122 42539163 42989124 42859025
42788927 42488787 42468786 42108772 41598811
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment