SWODY1
SPC AC 070034
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0734 PM CDT SAT AUG 06 2011
VALID 070100Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MO
VALLEY/UPPER MIDWEST REGION...
...MID MO VALLEY/UPPER MIDWEST...
STORMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS ERN NEB AND
VICINITY...ON SRN FRINGE OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE NRN
PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY REGION ATTM. OTHER STORMS ARE INCREASING
ACROSS S CENTRAL MN...NEARER THE UPPER SYSTEM. ROUGHLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY FLOW THROUGH THE MID TROPOSPHERE ACROSS THIS
REGION /INCREASING TO 35 KT AT H5/ WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
ORGANIZED/SUPERCELL STORMS...GIVEN THE SUBSTANTIAL AIRMASS
INSTABILITY IN PLACE /MIXED-LAYER CAPE RANGING FROM 1000 TO 1500
J/KG OVER SRN MN...AND INCREASING TO 3000 TO 4000 J/KG FARTHER S
ACROSS ERN NEB AND IA/.
MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE DEVELOPING CONVECTION ACROSS THE MID MO
VALLEY AREA MAY GROW UPSCALE INTO A BOWING MCS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS...WHICH WOULD SHIFT EWD ACROSS IA AND VICINITY AND LIKELY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A MORE WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND THREAT.
OTHERWISE...ANY SUSTAINED STORM IN THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING LOCALLY DAMAGING GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.
...SRN PLAINS/OZARKS...
BAND OF STORMS CONTINUES FROM THE SERN TX PANHANDLE ENEWD INTO SWRN
MO/NWRN AR ATTM...ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WHERE MODERATE DIURNAL
DESTABILIZATION HAS OCCURRED. FLOW REMAINS WEAK ACROSS THIS
AREA...BUT WITH DEEP MIXED LAYER SUPPORTING SUB-CLOUD EVAPORATIVE
COOLING...THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS MAY CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT 1-2 HOURS BEFORE STORMS WEAKEN.
..GOSS.. 08/07/2011
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