Thursday, August 25, 2011

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 260049
SWODY1
SPC AC 260047

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0747 PM CDT THU AUG 25 2011

VALID 260100Z - 261200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST...
THE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM THAT DEVELOPED EARLIER TODAY TO THE
LEE OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS HAS WEAKENED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
DELMARVA PENINSULA AND SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA. THE REMNANT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE REMAINS A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...BUT THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS APPEARS TO BE
DIMINISHING AS BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY WANES WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING.

FARTHER NORTH...FORCING ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
ADVANCING THROUGH THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA IS MAINTAINING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. IT
SEEMS PROBABLE THAT THIS MAY CONTINUE EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MID
ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE
03-06Z TIME FRAME. SUBSTANTIVE FURTHER INTENSIFICATION IS NOT
EXPECTED...BUT THE RISK FOR LOCALIZED STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY NOT BE
COMPLETELY NEGLIGIBLE.

...SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST/FLORIDA PENINSULA...
OCCASIONAL SHORT-LIVED AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS MAY REMAIN POSSIBLE
WITHIN CONVECTIVE BANDS ON THE FAR WESTERN PERIPHERY OF HURRICANE
IRENE...WHICH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MIGRATE NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS.
THIS COULD ENHANCE THE DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF MODESTLY STRONG
NORTHERLY LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW...BUT POTENTIAL FOR PEAK
SURFACE GUSTS TO EXCEED SEVERE CRITERIA OVER INLAND AREAS STILL
SEEMS TOO LOW TO JUSTIFY ADDING SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME.

...INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND PLAINS...
SCATTERED ONGOING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD GENERALLY BEGIN TO
WANE BY 03-04Z WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER...
SCATTERED NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT REMAINS POSSIBLE WITHIN
STRENGTHENING LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

..KERR.. 08/26/2011

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

No comments: