Friday, August 26, 2011

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 270031
SWODY1
SPC AC 270029

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0729 PM CDT FRI AUG 26 2011

VALID 270100Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL AREAS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHERN MONTANA...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS EVE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH
CENTRAL MONTANA...

...MID ATLANTIC COAST...
DESTABILIZATION WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER THROUGH THE LOWER/MID
TROPOSPHERE REMAINS THE PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING THE TORNADIC
POTENTIAL AS IRENE GRADUALLY ACCELERATES TOWARD THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST OVERNIGHT. BARRING THE UNLIKELY TURN INLAND WEST OF THE
CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...DESTABILIZATION SUPPORTIVE AN APPRECIABLE
TORNADO THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY LIMITED TO THE OUTER
BANKS/NORTHEAST COASTAL AREAS...ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE 09-12Z TIME
FRAME.

...MONTANA...
LACK OF STRONGER AND MORE WIDESPREAD BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION
HAS LIMITED THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
VIGOROUS STORM DEVELOPMENT REMAINING FAIRLY LOCALIZED. CONVECTION
SUPPORTED BY FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A COMPACT MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC
VORTICITY CENTER IS NOW SPREADING ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
AREA INTO SOUTHEASTERN ALBERTA AND SOUTHWESTERN SASKATCHEWAN. A
WEAK UPSTREAM IMPULSE COULD STILL CONTRIBUTE TO AN ADDITIONAL STORM
OR TWO OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN INTO AREAS NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTH OF
GREAT FALLS THIS EVENING... BUT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IN GENERAL MAY
BE DIMINISHING ACROSS THIS REGION.

PRIMARY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT INTO AND THROUGH THE EVENING MAY BE
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA...WHERE LOWER/MID
TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION COULD PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR A DEVELOPING
CLUSTER OF STORMS IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR BENEATH
30-40+ KT WESTERLY 500 MB FLOW. WEAK INSTABILITY...HOWEVER...
PROBABLY WILL LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL...PARTICULARLY AS LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES BEGIN TO STABILIZE THROUGH THE 03-06Z TIME FRAME.

..KERR.. 08/27/2011

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