Saturday, August 27, 2011

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 280052
SWODY1
SPC AC 280050

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0750 PM CDT SAT AUG 27 2011

VALID 280100Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT ACROSS NRN MID ATLANTIC
COASTAL AREAS...

...MID/NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST...
THE CENTER OF IRENE HAS MIGRATED OFFSHORE...AND IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE NORTHWARD NEAR/JUST EAST OF THE VIRGINIA/MARYLAND EASTERN
SHORE INTO THE VICINITY OF THE SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY COAST BY 28/12Z.
THIS TRACK IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR INLAND
BOUNDARY LAYER AND LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC DESTABILIZATION CONDUCIVE
TO A MORE SUBSTANTIVE RISK FOR TORNADOES. BUT...GIVEN THE MOIST
ENVIRONMENT AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS AND SHEAR...AN ISOLATED
TORNADO OR TWO IS STILL NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...PARTICULARLY NEAR
COASTAL AREAS. ISOLATED TORNADIC DEVELOPMENT TO THIS POINT HAS
GENERALLY BEEN WITH CELLS MOVING INLAND WITHIN OUTER CONVECTIVE
BANDS ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE BROAD CIRCULATION. THIS
SEEMS LIKELY TO REMAIN THE CASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS
PERIOD... IMPACTING MAINLY NEW JERSEY COASTAL AREAS THIS
EVENING...AND LONG ISLAND...PERHAPS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COASTAL
AREAS...OVERNIGHT.

...NORTHERN PLAINS...
IT APPEARS POSSIBLE THAT ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS DEVELOPING
SOUTHEASTWARD OFF THE BLACK HILLS COULD PERSIST ANOTHER COUPLE OF
HOURS AS A SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS. EVENTUALLY...INCREASING INHIBITION ASSOCIATED WITH
BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING AND WARMING MID-LEVELS IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO
DISSIPATION.

OTHERWISE...ADDITIONAL ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST
MONTANA AND NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...PERHAPS SPREADING
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN...SUPPORTED BY FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN A MODESTLY
STRONG NORTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER FLOW. THIS ACTIVITY PROBABLY WILL
WEAKEN OVERNIGHT...BUT STRENGTHENING WARM ADVECTION DOWNSTREAM... IN
THE PRESENCE OF STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL/SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...COULD SUPPORT ADDITIONAL
VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME HAIL AND
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS.

...SOUTHWEST...
ONGOING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...WITHIN A HOT AND DEEPLY
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE DESERTS OF SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND
SOUTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA...PROBABLY WILL REMAIN CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LOCALLY DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS... BEFORE
DIMINISHING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES.

..KERR.. 08/28/2011

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