DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 170552
SWODY2
SPC AC 170551

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1251 AM CDT WED AUG 17 2011

VALID 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOCUSED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
REGION...

...SYNOPSIS...
SOME FURTHER AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER PATTERN IS EXPECTED DAY
2...AS EXPANSION OF THE ERN TROUGH OCCURS IN CONJUNCTION WITH A WWD
SHUNTING OF THE UPPER RIDGE TO A POSITION CENTERED IN THE SWRN
STATES. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK LOW AND BAROCLINIC ZONE SHOULD
LINGER OVER KS...WHILE A SECOND/STRONGER FRONT SHIFTS SEWD ACROSS
THE N CENTRAL CONUS IN CONJUNCTION WITH A POTENT SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
CROSSING THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE. THESE FEATURES POINT TOWARD A SEVERE
THREAT CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS REGION THIS PERIOD.

...CENTRAL PLAINS AND VICINITY...
COMPLEX SCENARIO IS APPARENT DAY 2...WITH STORMS LIKELY ONGOING AT
THE START OF THE PERIOD. WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND POSSIBLY A
WEAK LOW LINGERING OVER KS...AND A SECOND/STRONGER FRONT PROGRESSING
SEWD ACROSS THE N CENTRAL CONUS DURING THE AFTERNOON...STORMS WILL
LIKELY INCREASE/REDEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
HERE...MOIST/HEATING BOUNDARY LAYER WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE
AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION...SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST A FEW VIGOROUS
STORMS. ALONG WITH THE FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMICS...LOW-LEVEL ELY
COMPONENT TO THE FLOW N OF THE KS FRONT/LOW BENEATH MODERATE
MID-LEVEL WNWLYS WILL RESULT IN SHEAR THAT WILL FURTHER SUPPORT
ORGANIZED/SEVERE STORMS.

WHILE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND VERY LARGE HAIL IS
EVIDENT...LOCATION OF POSSIBLE GREATER SEVERE WEATHER CONCENTRATION
AND EVOLUTION/STORM MODE QUESTIONS PRECLUDE INSERTION OF FORECAST
DETAIL IN THE FORM OF SMALL HIGHER-PROBABILITY AREAS.
INSTEAD...WILL MAINTAIN A FAIRLY BROAD SLIGHT RISK/15% THREAT AREA
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MID MO VALLEY REGION -- FOR A PRIMARILY
AFTERNOON/EVENING SEVERE WEATHER EVENT.

..GOSS.. 08/17/2011

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