SWODY2
SPC AC 260513
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1213 AM CDT FRI AUG 26 2011
VALID 271200Z - 281200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...NRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
LARGE SCALE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS WITH THE CENTER OF A DOMINANT UPPER HIGH EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LOCATED OVER THE 4-CORNERS REGION. ALONG THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THIS
ANTICYCLONE A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE NRN
ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS BEFORE DIGGING SEWD. ONE SUCH FEATURE
MAY AFFECT THE BLACK HILLS REGION EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH ENHANCED
LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WHICH SHOULD AID A POTENTIAL EARLY MORNING
COMPLEX OF STORMS. THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO PROVE
PARTICULARLY ROBUST AS INSTABILITY WILL BE AT A DIURNAL MINIMUM AND
LARGE SCALE FORCING DOES NOT APPEAR SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT A
MEANINGFUL SEVERE RISK. LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...STEEP LAPSE RATES
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF SERN MT/ERN WY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MORE
SIGNIFICANT DESTABILIZATION AND ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY
TRAVERSE SRN MT/NRN WY BY EARLY EVENING. IF THIS FEATURE IS HANDLED
ACCURATELY BY THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE THEN A FEW STORMS MAY
APPROACH OR EVEN EXCEED SEVERE LEVELS PRIMARILY DURING THE 21-03Z
TIME FRAME.
...HURRICANE IRENE...
HURRICANE IRENE REMAINS ON TRACK TO SKIRT THE ERN SHORE OF NC AS IT
LIFTS NNEWD VERY NEAR THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST. WITH THE PRIMARY
SURGE OF QUALITY BOUNDARY LAYER AIR/INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO REMAIN
JUST OFFSHORE...ALONG WITH STRONGER MORE FAVORABLE SHEAR...IT
REMAINS TO BE SEEN WHETHER A SIGNIFICANT TORNADO THREAT WILL
MATERIALIZE INLAND TO THE LEFT OF THE CYCLONE TRACK. FOR THIS
REASON WILL MAINTAIN 5% PROBABILITIES FOR TORNADOES NEAR THE LOW
CENTER.
..DARROW.. 08/26/2011
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