Wednesday, August 31, 2011

DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 310706
SWODY3
SPC AC 310704

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0204 AM CDT WED AUG 31 2011

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

...SYNOPSIS...
BELT OF STRONGER MID LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NRN
STATES AND CANADA WITH ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING NEWD AWAY FROM
THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO ERN CANADA THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEKEND. ON THE HEELS OF THIS LEADING SHORTWAVE...THE NEXT UPPER
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG/AMPLIFY SEWD FROM WRN CANADA TO THE NRN
PLAINS BY SATURDAY MORNING. VESTIGES OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FROM
THE OH VALLEY TO THE GULF COAST WILL BE WEAKENED FURTHER BY THE
ENCROACHMENT OF HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PROGRESSIVE
DISTURBANCES IN THE WLYS...AS WELL AS FROM A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
FORECAST TO EDGE NWD FROM THE GULF.

...MIDWEST...
ANY SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE MARGINAL/LIMITED. A
FEW STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE ALONG THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LEADING IMPULSE MOVING INTO ERN CANADA. THE SURFACE FRONT
WILL BECOME FURTHER REMOVED FROM SUPPORTIVE LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR
ASCENT AND ANY STORMS DEVELOPING ON OR NEAR THE FRONT...FROM LOWER
MI SWWD ACROSS IL...WILL LIKELY EXIST IN WEAK SHEAR UNSUPPORTIVE OF
STORM PERSISTENCE/ORGANIZATION.

...HIGH PLAINS LATE...
SOME POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SMALL HAIL MAY OCCUR LATE IN THE PERIOD
AS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS SEWD FROM MT TO THE NRN HIGH
PLAINS. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND DYNAMIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
FRONTAL SURGE COINCIDENT WITH A NARROW HIGH PLAINS MOIST AXIS COULD
RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN STRONGER STORMS FROM NERN CO/ERN WY INTO SD
THOUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

..CARBIN.. 08/31/2011

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