SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012310
NDZ000-SDZ000-020115-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1825
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0610 PM CDT MON AUG 01 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS DAKOTAS
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 713...
VALID 012310Z - 020115Z
CORRECTED FOR UPDATED GUST
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 713
CONTINUES.
EXISTING ACTIVITY OVER PORTIONS WRN SD MAY EXPAND UPSCALE AFTER
ENCOUNTERING MORE FAVORABLE MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AND EVOLVE INTO
MCS. PORTIONS CENTRAL/ERN DAKOTAS WILL BE MONITORED FOR ADDITIONAL
WW ISSUANCE.
SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS LOW INVOF ND/SD BORDER...SPECIFICALLY
CORRESPONDING TO CONVERGENCE ZONE EVIDENT IN LOW-LEVEL REFLECTIVITY
ANIMATIONS ALONG MCPHERSON/MCINTOSH COUNTY LINE. WARM FRONT IS
ANALYZED OVER SARGENT COUNTY ND THEN SEWD OVER SWRN MN. OCCLUDED
FRONT IS ANALYZED NWWD ACROSS N-CENTRAL SD TO SERN SK... COLD FRONT
EXTENDS SWD ACROSS PORTIONS STANLEY/PENNINGTON COUNTIES..BEING
OVERTAKEN BY OUTFLOW ACROSS BADLANDS AND BLACK HILLS REGIONS.
COMBINED FRONT/OUTFLOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS DAKOTAS
THROUGH REMAINDER EVENING WHILE LOW MOVES EWD ALONG FRONT TO ERN ND.
OUTFLOW-PRODUCING TSTM CLUSTER IS MOVING EWD ABOUT 25-30 KT ACROSS
ZIEBACH COUNTY ATTM...HAVING PRODUCED SVR GUST OF 69 KT AT D07 AT
2226Z. ACTIVITY MAY CATCH UP TO COLD FRONT AND ENTER MORE ROBUST
MOISTURE JUST E OF MO RIVER. OTHER/ISOLATED TSTMS HAVE BEEN
DEVELOPING IN POST COLD-FRONTAL REGIME OVER WRN SD...WHERE AIR MASS
REMAINS WEAKLY CAPPED AND FAVORABLY UNSTABLE DESPITE PRESENCE OF
VEERED SFC WINDS AND CAA...AS WELL AS ALONG CONFLUENCE LINE E OF
OCCLUDED FRONT OVER NERN ND. PLUME OF ENHANCED SFC MOISTURE...WITH
DEW POINTS MID 70S TO LOW 80S F...WAS EVIDENT NEAR LOW AND WARM
FRONT. MEANWHILE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN STRONGEST ALONG/N OF
WARM FRONT WHERE SFC WINDS ARE WEAK BUT RELATIVELY BACKED. AS
LOW-LEVEL WINDS JUST ABOVE SFC INCREASE WITH ONSET OF BOUNDARY-LAYER
DECOUPLING...SUPPORT FOR TSTMS AND SVR MAY INCREASE OVER ERN
DAKOTAS. CONVECTIVE/BOUNDARY/INSTABILITY TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED
ACCORDINGLY FOR POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL WW.
..EDWARDS.. 08/01/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR...
LAT...LON 44389974 44140270 44510388 45700335 47740123 48979824
48799719 47509729 45279848 44509946 44389974
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