SWOMCD
SPC MCD 062314
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-070115-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1876
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0614 PM CDT SAT AUG 06 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NERN SD...W-CENTRAL THROUGH S-CENTRAL MN.
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 062314Z - 070115Z
WIDELY SCATTERED CB HAVE FORMED ACROSS PORTIONS ERN SD AND WRN
MN...WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE OVER NEXT 2-3 HOURS.
ISOLATED SVR HAIL/GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT
COVERAGE/INTENSITY/ORGANIZATION OF THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR ROBUST
ENOUGH TO WARRANT WW.
MESOANALYSIS IS RATHER CHAOTIC ACROSS THIS REGION...WITH NMRS
SMALL-SCALE BOUNDARIES EVIDENT IN VIS IMAGERY...SFC OBS AND
REFLECTIVITY ANIMATIONS. PRIMARY BOUNDARIES INCLUDE QUASISTATIONARY
OUTFLOW FROM WI MCS THAT EXTENDS WNWWD THROUGH WEAK MESOLOW OVER SRN
PORTIONS MSP AREA...WNWWD ACROSS SRN MN BEFORE BECOMING DIFFUSE OVER
POPE COUNTY. SEPARATE BUT ALSO QUASISTATIONARY SFC TROUGH IS
ANALYZED FROM MESOLOW NWWD ACROSS SRN OTTER TAIL
COUNTY...INTERSECTING PROGRESSIVE COLD FRONT INVOF FFM. FRONT IS
ANALYZED SWWD ACROSS NERN SD NEAR ABR AND WILL SERVE AS FOCUS FOR AT
LEAST ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT. ACTIVITY FARTHER E OVER WRN MN
SHOULD MOVE SE NEAR TROUGH AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. TROUGH LIES WITHIN
BAROCLINIC GRADIENT N OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...SUCH THAT RELATIVELY
BACKED FLOW AND NELYS THAT NOMINALLY WOULD ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL
HODOGRAPHS AND STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW ARE ON ITS COLD SIDE.
MOST FAVORABLE EFFECTIVE INFLOW AIR MASS FOR WRN MN AND NERN SD
CONVECTION WILL BE ON S SIDE OF TROUGH. MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST SFC DEW POINTS 60S F AND STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
ASSOCIATED WITH NEARBY SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE
1000-1500 J/KG IN THAT AIR MASS. HOWEVER...VEERED FLOW FROM W AND
NW WILL CONTINUE...RELATIVELY MINIMIZING STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW AND
HODOGRAPH SIZE...AND ALSO KEEPING EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES BELOW
40-KT VALUES OF 500-MB FLOW EVIDENT IN WDL PROFILER. SRN LIMIT OF
POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE RELATIVELY STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER OVER SERN
SD AND SWRN MN...WHERE BLEND OF STRATUS AND BILLOWS ARE EVIDENT IN
VIS IMAGERY. LITTLE IF ANY SFC DESTABILIZATION LIKELY S OF NERN
SD/WRN MN CORRIDOR GIVEN THAT AIR MASS CHARACTER...WITH CLOUD COVER
AND LIMITED DAYLIGHT.
..EDWARDS.. 08/06/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...
LAT...LON 45349853 45639732 46349596 46189557 45359355 44769293
44259384 44489581 44729844 45349853
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