SWOMCD
SPC MCD 082223
ILZ000-082330-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1904
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0523 PM CDT MON AUG 08 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...IL
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY
VALID 082223Z - 082330Z
DAMAGING WIND THREAT APPEARS TO BE INCREASING WITH DEVELOPING TSTM
CLUSTER INVOF MESOLOW/COLD FRONT IN W-CNTRL/NWRN IL. THE PROBABILITY
OF A WW ISSUANCE BY 00Z IS 60 PERCENT.
22Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A MESOLOW AROUND 30 SE MLI WITH A COLD
FRONT EXTENDING SWWD INTO NRN MO AND AN ARCING BOUNDARY SINKING
SLOWLY SWD THROUGH STARK TO PUTNAM COUNTIES. THE MOST INTENSE TSTM
ACTIVITY HAS GENERALLY REMAINED ALONG AND N OF THIS OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY...BUT CELLS HAVE RECENTLY INCREASED FARTHER SW ALONG THE
COLD FRONT. A WEDGE OF FULL INSOLATION BETWEEN THIS RENEWED
DEVELOPMENT AND EARLIER CONVECTIVE DEBRIS HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES
TO SURGE INTO THE 80S ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL IL. GIVEN THIS
INCREASING DESTABILIZATION AMIDST 30-40 KT EFFECTIVE
SHEAR...POTENTIAL FOR UPSCALE TSTM GROWTH APPEARS PROBABLE WITH AN
ATTENDANT THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS.
..GRAMS.. 08/08/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...
LAT...LON 40969039 41418963 41538884 41338826 40588758 40348756
39718837 39408959 39699056 40129063 40219061 40969039
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