SWOMCD
SPC MCD 082230
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-090030-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1905
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0530 PM CDT MON AUG 08 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OK...EXTREME S-CENTRAL KS...SERN PANHANDLE
OF TX.
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 082230Z - 090030Z
TSTM COVERAGE FCST TO INCREASE FROM W-E OVER DISCUSSION AREA...WITH
CORRESPONDINGLY MORE WIDESPREAD POTENTIAL FOR STG-SVR GUSTS
PRODUCING DAMAGE.
22Z SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWED WEAK MESOLOW INVOF AVK...CORRESPONDING
CLOSELY TO CENTER OF LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC GYRE EVIDENT IN LOW-DBZ
REFLECTIVITY ANIMATIONS IN THAT AREA. LOW IS DRIFTING NEWD ALONG
QUASISTATIONARY SFC FRONTAL ZONE ANALYZED NEWD ACROSS S-CENTRAL KS.
THIS BOUNDARY EXTENDED WSWWD FROM LOW ACROSS TX PANHANDLE NEAR
PPA-AMA-TCC LINE. WAVY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER CONVECTION
EXTENDED FROM ADAIR-GRANT COUNTIES OK...AND WAS MOVING NWD 5-15 KT
FROM TUL AREA WWD. PREFRONTAL TROUGH/WIND-SHIFT LINE WAS ANALYZED
FROM LOW SWWD PAST PVW TO SERN NM...PASSING THROUGH DIFFUSE DRYLINE
OVER ERN PANHANDLE. BKN LINE OF CONVECTIVE TOWERS...INCLUDING
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED TSTMS...ARE EVIDENT IN VIS IMAGERY
ATOP SFC TROUGH ON BOTH SIDES OF DRYLINE...ALTHOUGH CONVECTION ALONG
AND E OF DRYLINE WILL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR GREATEST LONGEVITY AS IT
MOVES INTO PROGRESSIVELY MORE FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. AS
FRONT CATCHES UP TO TROUGH...CONVERGENCE AND CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
THEREON MAY INCREASE.
DOWNSHEAR ENVIRONMENT ACROSS WRN/CENTRAL OK IS CHARACTERIZED BY
HOT/DEEPLY-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...WITH TEMPS REMAINING IN 100S F FOR
ANOTHER FEW HOURS AND DEW POINTS 50S TO LOW 60S S OF OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY. MODIFIED RAOBS AND FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST 1500-2000 J/KG
DCAPE BENEATH SOMEWHAT SMALLER VALUES OF MLCAPE. THIS WILL SUPPORT
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING GUSTS AS CONVECTION INITIALLY NEAR TROUGH
EXPANDS UPSCALE AMIDST NEGLIGIBLE CINH...AND SPREADS EWD. EVENTUAL
COALESCENCE INTO QLCS WITH AGGREGATED COLD POOL IS POSSIBLE AS
WELL...FURTHER CONCENTRATING WIND THREAT. ALTHOUGH
AMBIENT/DEEP-LAYER WIND PROFILES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY
FAVORABLE...LOCALIZED ENHANCEMENTS TO VORTICITY...MOISTURE AND
EFFECTIVE SRH ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ALSO MAY SUPPORT AT LEAST
TRANSIENT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AND MORE LONG-LIVED BOWING
THREAT...WITH ANY CONVECTION THAT CAN INTERACT WITH BOUNDARY IN
SUSTAINED BASIS. GIVEN NWLY/WNWLY FLOW ALOFT...CONVECTION SHOULD
MOVE GENERALLY ESEWD TO SEWD ACROSS AREA. EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL
CONTINUE TO DECREASE WITH SWD EXTENT...RANGING FROM 35-45 KT OVER
KS/OK BORDER REGION TO AOB 25 KT OVER SRN OK.
..EDWARDS.. 08/08/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...LUB...AMA...
LAT...LON 35100068 35939925 36459853 37059826 37199759 36989674
36459575 35649536 34979611 34669746 34599971 34660066
35100068
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