SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142356
NDZ000-SDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-150130-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1981
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0656 PM CDT SUN AUG 14 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MT INTO FAR WRN ND/NWRN SD
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 142356Z - 150130Z
ISOLATED STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. STRONG WIND GUSTS
AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. GIVEN THE
ISOLATED NATURE OF CONVECTION HOWEVER...A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT
THIS TIME.
ISOLATED STORMS WERE IN PROGRESS NEAR THE MT/SK BORDER...FORCED IN
PART BY AN EXITING VORTICITY MAX ACROSS SRN SK. FURTHER S ACROSS
SERN MT...ANOTHER STORM OR TWO HAD DEVELOPED ALONG A SFC TROUGH
AHEAD OF ANOTHER APPROACHING VORTICITY MAX ACROSS NERN WY. LATEST
VIS SAT IMAGERY SHOWED SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THE CUMULUS FIELD ALONG
THE SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS ERN MT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE THE
ENVIRONMENT WAS MODERATELY UNSTABLE /MLCAPE AROUND 1500-2000
J/KG/...A STRONG CAP IS LIKELY PROHIBITING MORE WIDESPREAD/ROBUST
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED AND STRUGGLE TO OVERCOME THE STRONG CAP. HOWEVER...GIVEN
THE MODERATE INSTABILITY...ADEQUATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR /EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR 30-45 KT/ AND STEEP LAPSE RATES...ANY STRONGER CELL THAT CAN
OVERCOME THE CAP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG WINDS AND
POTENTIALLY SEVERE HAIL.
..LEITMAN.. 08/14/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...
LAT...LON 49170622 49130542 48920447 48290385 47550343 46330323
45500336 45230348 45020385 44920455 44960568 45140597
45410597 45960571 46670556 47530579 48290643 48920685
49120662 49170622
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