SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182300
MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-190000-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2010
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0600 PM CDT THU AUG 18 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN-WRN MO / FAR NERN KS / EXTREME SERN NEB
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 182300Z - 190000Z
A NEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WITHIN THE
NEXT HOUR OR SO DOWNSTREAM OF WW 785 ACROSS THE NWRN PORTION OF MO
AND ADJACENT PARTS OF KS AND NEB. LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE
LIKELY INITIALLY THIS EVENING BEFORE STORM MERGERS LEAD TO SOME
CONSOLIDATION AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS GRADUALLY BECOMING A LARGER
THREAT LATER THIS EVENING.
RADAR MOSAIC ACROSS THE LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY SHOWS A CLUSTER OF
SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL /AOA 2 INCHES IN
DIAMETER/ BEING REPORTED. A RADAR FINE LINE SHOWING CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW FROM THE STORMS NEAR OMA AND WRN IA IS SLOWLY PUSHING WWD
INTO ERN NEB. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ANALYZED BY THE RUC ARE MOVING
ACROSS THE SD/NEB/WRN IA...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT BACKGROUND
LARGE SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THE REGION WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AS THESE FEATURES/STORM MOTIONS PROGRESS TOWARDS THE DISCUSSION AREA
AND AS A 30+ KT LLJ TERMINUS OVERSPREADS THE REGION.
STRONG VENTING HIGH LEVEL FLOW IS CONTRIBUTING TO 40-60 KTS
EFFECTIVE SHEAR...AND WILL MAINTAIN STORM ORGANIZATION AS STORMS
GRADUALLY MERGE AND GROW UPSCALE LATER THIS EVENING. STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES /NEAR 9 DEG C PER KM/ PER THE 18Z OAX RAOB ATOP A
MOISTURE RICH BOUNDARY LAYER ARE RESULTING IN STRONG POTENTIAL
INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE 1500-3000 J/KG---WITH A LARGE TO VERY LARGE
HAIL AND DMGG WIND THREAT DEVELOPING THIS EVENING AND LASTING WELL
INTO THE LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS.
..SMITH.. 08/18/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...OAX...TOP...
LAT...LON 39059556 40389649 40479552 40549398 39909345 38999292
38099308 37839387 38319485 39059556
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