SWOMCD
SPC MCD 230035
MNZ000-NDZ000-SDZ000-230200-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2039
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0735 PM CDT MON AUG 22 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN ND
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 230035Z - 230200Z
LATEST WV IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL DEFINED MID LEVEL VORT/SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DIGGING ESEWD ACROSS ND AT ROUGHLY 30-35KT. WEAK CONVECTION
HAS BEEN NOTED WITH THIS FEATURE AND DEEPER UPDRAFTS WITH A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE RECENTLY BEEN OBSERVED NEAR BIS ALONG LEADING
EDGE OF STRONGER FORCING. 00Z SOUNDING FROM BIS EXHIBITS A FAIRLY
MOIST/BUOYANT PROFILE WITH MLCAPE AROUND 2900 J/KG AND SUFFICIENT
DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR WEAK STORM ROTATION IF UPDRAFTS CAN ROOT
THEMSELVES WITHIN FAVORABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. IT/S NOT COMPLETELY
CLEAR HOW CONCENTRATED THIS ACTIVITY WILL BECOME THOUGH
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS DO WARRANT SOME CONSIDERATION FOR A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH IF TSTMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN AREAL
COVERAGE/INTENSITY.
..DARROW.. 08/23/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...
LAT...LON 46380053 48019993 47449675 45869755 46380053
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