Saturday, August 27, 2011

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2070

ACUS11 KWNS 280030
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 280030
NDZ000-MTZ000-280200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2070
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0730 PM CDT SAT AUG 27 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN MT...NWRN ND

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 280030Z - 280200Z

ISOLATED STRONG/SVR THUNDERSTORMS MAY EVOLVE SEWD OUT OF CANADA INTO
PORTIONS OF NERN MT AND NWRN ND DURING THE EVENING/PART OF THE
NIGHT. THOUGH A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS
DAMAGING WINDS...THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR GREAT ENOUGH FOR WW.

VISIBLE SATELLITE AND REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOW ISOLATED/SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER SRN SASKATCHEWAN AT 0020Z...ATTENDANT
WITH SEVERAL MINOR UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE MOVING SEWD WITHIN 40+ KT W-NWLY MEAN FLOW JUXTAPOSED
ALONG NW-SE ORIENTED LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE SITUATED FROM FAR
NWRN ND TO CNTRL SD. TONGUE OF UPPER 50S/LOW 60S DEWPOINTS RESIDE
OVER FAR ERN MT AND WRN/CNTRL ND...AND ARE POSITIONED BENEATH THE
NERN EDGE OF AN EML PLUME /LEADING TO STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES/.
AS A RESULT...MODERATE INSTABILITY IS LOCATED AHEAD OF THE CANADIAN
STORM ACTIVITY...AND MAY FAVOR ORGANIZED SVR STORM DEVELOPMENT
/INCLUDING SUPERCELLS/ GIVEN LONG HODOGRAPH STRUCTURES SEEN IN RUC
FORECAST SOUNDINGS /YIELDING 50-60 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR/.
PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY REGARDING MORE SUBSTANTIAL SVR WEATHER THREAT IS
THE PRESENCE OF FAIRLY STRONG CONVECTIVE INHIBITION ALONG THE COOL
SIDE OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE /WHICH IS FORECAST TO INCREASE WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING/. HOWEVER...A FEW STORMS MAY PERSIST INTO
PART OF THE NIGHT...POSING A THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND
PERHAPS DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

..GARNER.. 08/28/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...GGW...

LAT...LON 47290406 48190674 49060707 49130082 47380106 47290406

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