SWOMCD
SPC MCD 292353
NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-300100-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2085
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0653 PM CDT MON AUG 29 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NC/SC
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 816...817...
VALID 292353Z - 300100Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
816...817...CONTINUES.
COMPOSITE RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THUNDERSTORMS OVER ERN NC/SC ARE
BECOMING CONFINED TO A STATIONARY FRONT WHICH EXTENDS FROM ROUGHLY
AGS NEWD TO 30SW OF SOP TO HSE. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
TEMPERATURES ARE COOLING INTO THE MID 80S AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WHICH
IS CONTRIBUTING TOWARD A STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER. HOWEVER...GIVEN
UPPER SUPPORT AHEAD OF A TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE APPALACHIANS...AS
WELL AS FRONTAL CONVERGENCE/ASCENT...BROKEN LINE OF MULTICELL
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE 03Z EXPIRATION TIME OF
WW/S 816 AND 817. RUC AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS GUIDANCE INDICATE
INSTABILITY ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT RANGES FROM 500-1500
J/KG...WHILE EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE NEAR 25 KT OVER ERN SC
TO 40 KT OVER ERN NC. THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
ISOLATED STRONG/SVR STORMS POSING A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
AND PERHAPS LARGE HAIL.
..GARNER.. 08/29/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...
LAT...LON 34838040 34827987 36567854 36567564 34817704 34827742
32927962 32978142 33508199 34838040
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