SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010124
NDZ000-MTZ000-010230-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2087
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0824 PM CDT WED AUG 31 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...FAR EASTERN MT TO ND
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 010124Z - 010230Z
SEVERE HAIL/WIND THREAT WILL LIKELY SPREAD EASTWARD FROM FAR EASTERN
MT INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL ND THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. CONTINUED
INCREASING CONVECTIVE TRENDS/UPSCALE GROWTH MAY PROMPT A SEVERE TSTM
WATCH ISSUANCE.
STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY EARLY
THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY WITHIN A NEAR/POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT
ACROSS NORTHEAST/EAST-CENTRAL MT...WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL MT INTO
WESTERN ND. THE 00Z OBSERVED SOUNDING FROM GLASGOW MT...WITHIN A
NEAR/IMMEDIATE POST-FRONTAL SURFACE ENVIRONMENT...REFLECTED STEEP
LAPSE RATES/2000 J PER KG MUCAPE AMID VERY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR /55
KT 0-6 KM/ IN THE PRESENCE OF CONSIDERABLE MID/HIGH LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLIES. WITH DPVA/WARM ADVECTION CONTRIBUTING TO ADDITIONAL
TSTM DEVELOPMENT...CONTINUED CELL MERGERS/UPSCALE GROWTH WITHIN A
HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE TO YIELD STORMS CAPABLE OF
SEVERE HAIL/WIND THROUGH THE EVENING.
..GUYER.. 09/01/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...BIS...GGW...
LAT...LON 48800527 48990173 48629998 47220021 46680501 48800527
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