SWODY1
SPC AC 080441
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1141 PM CDT WED SEP 07 2011
VALID 081200Z - 091200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION...
A CLOSED MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO RETROGRADE WWD OVER THE
OH VALLEY REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN ATTENDANT FRONTAL ZONE WILL
REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS PARTS OF THE ERN STATES...WHILE A LONG FETCH OF
ABUNDANT DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE /PW VALUES REACHING 2 INCHES IN SOME
AREAS/ EMBEDDED IN SLY TO SWLY FLOW ALOFT RESIDES WELL EAST OF THE
LOW CENTER. THESE FACTORS...COMBINED WITH MOSTLY MARGINAL AMOUNTS OF
BUOYANCY...SHOULD SUPPORT A THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND NERN STATES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT
LAKES REGION...AS WELL AS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL/SRN FL WHERE SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARIES COULD AUGMENT LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. HOWEVER...AS
THE STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE RETROGRADING LOW
BECOMES INCREASINGLY REMOVED FROM THE WARM/UNSTABLE SECTOR...THE
THREAT FOR SVR STORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL.
FURTHERMORE...DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM ONGOING CONVECTION COULD INHIBIT
DESTABILIZATION.
FARTHER WEST ACROSS THE ROCKIES...GREAT BASIN...AND SWRN
STATES...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED...AS
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINES WITH SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY AND OROGRAPHIC
ASCENT. THIS ASCENT WILL BE ENHANCED IN SOME AREAS...AS A MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE /CURRENTLY MOVING ONSHORE OVER THE COAST OF CA/ DRIFTS
ESEWD ACROSS PARTS OF CA AND CNTRL NV BEFORE EVENTUALLY REACHING NRN
AZ/SRN UT LATE IN THE PERIOD. STEEP LOW-TO-MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
COULD SUPPORT A THREAT FOR LOCALLY GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WITH
PRIMARILY PULSE CONVECTION. HOWEVER...RELATIVELY WEAK MID-LEVEL FLOW
IS FORECAST TO LARGELY MITIGATE THE THREAT FOR ORGANIZED/SVR
CONVECTION.
..COHEN/RACY.. 09/08/2011
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