SWODY1
SPC AC 100537
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1237 AM CDT SAT SEP 10 2011
VALID 101200Z - 111200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
COMPLEX RETROGRADING UPR GYRE OVER THE OH/MID-MS VLYS WILL BEGIN TO
REVERSE COURSE ON SATURDAY AS IT OPENS INTO A WAVE AND PHASES WITH
THE POLAR WLYS ACROSS ON/QB THIS WEEKEND. TO THE W...UPR LOW OVER
CNTRL CA WILL SETTLE SWD TO A POINT OFF THE SRN CA COAST BY SATURDAY
NIGHT.
...SCNTRL/SERN AZ...
WSW MID/UPR-LVL FLOW WILL TEMPORALLY BACK TO DEEP SSWLYS AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPR LOW DIGS TOWARD SRN CA. WHILE MID-LVL DRY SLOT
EVOLVES OVER THE LWR DESERTS...PWATS IN EXCESS OF 1.50 INCHES OVER
NRN SONORA WILL BE TRANSPORTED NWD INTO PARTS OF SCNTRL/SERN AZ
SATURDAY AFTN/NIGHT. INTERFACE OF DRY/MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND
UPSLOPE SSWLY LLVL FLOW WILL AUGMENT DIURNAL CIRCULATION AND
CONTRIBUTE TO WDLY SCTD TSTMS BY LATE AFTN. INCREASED RIDGING ALOFT
AND DECREASING DEEP-LAYER WIND SPEEDS COMPARED TO FRIDAY WILL BE
NEGATIVE FACTORS IN WIDESPREAD SVR WEATHER. BUT...ANY TSTM THAT
FORMS WILL POSE DMGG MICROBURST AND/OR MRGLLY SVR HAILSTONE RISKS.
...SRN CA/SRN NV...
POCKET OF PWATS NEAR 1 INCH WILL ROTATE NWWD AROUND PERIPHERY OF THE
UPR LOW OVER SRN CA/SRN NV SATURDAY AFTN/EVE. FLOW ALOFT WILL
REMAIN FAVORABLY DIFFLUENT/DIVERGENT ACROSS THE REGION AND WHEN
COMBINED WITH MODEST BUOYANCY...SCTD TSTMS WILL BE LIKELY. ISOLD
STORMS WILL LIKELY MIGRATE NWWD ACROSS HIGH DESERT AMIDST STEEP LLVL
LAPSE RATES/MODESTLY COOL MID-LVL TEMPERATURES. AS A RESULT...ISOLD
DMGG MICROBURSTS AND/OR MRGLLY SVR HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED.
..RACY/COHEN.. 09/10/2011
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