SWODY1
SPC AC 110548
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1248 AM CDT SUN SEP 11 2011
VALID 111200Z - 121200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK CUT-OFF LOW -- WITHIN THE LARGER-SCALE WRN U.S. RIDGE -- IS
PROGGED TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY INVOF THE SRN CA COAST.
MEANWHILE...A SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE
MIDWEST/SOUTHEAST REGIONS...WITH THE TROUGH AXIS FORECAST TO LIE
ROUGHLY ALONG THE APPALACHIANS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE WEAK
WRN U.S. LOW WILL CONTINUE TO ENABLE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED
AFTERNOON STORMS OVER THE GREAT BASIN/INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...WHILE
THE TROUGH CROSSING THE ERN U.S. ALSO SUPPORTS SCATTERED CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY.
...SRN PA/ERN WV/NRN VA/MD AND THE DELMARVA REGION...
WHILE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS VERY ISOLATED/LIMITED AT BEST ACROSS
BOTH THE SOUTHWEST AND THE EAST...A RELATIVE ZONE OF HIGHER -- BUT
STILL LIMITED -- SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY EVOLVE NEAR AND E OF THE
APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS OF PA/WV/VA/MD DURING THE AFTERNOON.
HERE...ASCENT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH MAY COMBINE WITH
MODEST CAPE TO SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER UPDRAFTS -- AIDED BY 30 TO 40
KT SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE ERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH. ANY
THREAT APPEARS ATTM TO BE ISOLATED -- AND LIMITED TO A SHORT WINDOW
OF TIME INVOF MAXIMUM DIURNAL HEATING...THUS...WILL DROP SLIGHT RISK
BUT MAINTAIN SEE TEXT/5% SEVERE PROBABILITY ACROSS THE AREA THIS
FORECAST.
..GOSS.. 09/11/2011
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