SWODY1
SPC AC 150521
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1221 AM CDT THU SEP 15 2011
VALID 151200Z - 161200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SWRN U.S...
LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR ANOTHER CONVECTIVELY
ACTIVE DAY ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES THURSDAY. LATE EVENING WV IMAGERY
CLEARLY DEPICTS A WELL DEFINED MID LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER NRN AZ.
THIS FEATURE WILL SHEAR EWD INTO NRN NM BY FRIDAY EVENING WITH THE
STRONGEST BELT OF MID-HIGH LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED TO EXTEND ALONG THE
U.S./MEXICAN BORDER INTO OK. EAST OF THE ROCKIES...ACROSS THE SRN
PLAINS...A STRONG SFC HIGH WILL ENSURE COOL BOUNDARY LAYER
CONDITIONS AND WEAK LAPSE RATES ACROSS ERN NM/WEST TX. AS A
RESULT...IT APPEARS STRONGEST HEATING WILL OCCUR ACROSS AZ INTO SWRN
NM AND ALONG THE RIO GRAND INTO WEST TX. STEEP LAPSE RATES ACROSS
THIS REGION WILL ONCE AGAIN AID IN ROBUST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS
PWAT VALUES SHOULD HOLD AOA ONE INCH. FOR THIS REASON WILL MAINTAIN
5% PROBABILITIES FOR THE THREAT OF ISOLATED DAMAGING
WINDS/HAIL...PRIMARILY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.
...DELMARVA...
STRONG HEIGHT FALLS WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE NERN U.S. THURSDAY
WITH SRN FRINGE OF ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO BRUSH
THE DELMARVA REGION. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST SFC FRONT WILL
MOVE OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST OF NJ AROUND 18Z...BUT TRAIL SWWD
INTO CNTRL VA NEAR PEAK HEATING. BASED ON THIS FRONTAL POSITION AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS...LATEST THINKING IS ISOLATED-SCT THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE WIND SHIFT...THOUGH MORE SUBSTANTIAL MID
LEVEL CONVECTION COULD TRAIL THE COLD FRONT WHERE COOLER BOUNDARY
LAYER AND WEAKER LAPSE RATES WILL RESIDE. IF SFC BASED ACTIVITY CAN
DEVELOP WHERE SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY EXISTS ALONG ADVANCING COLD FRONT
THERE APPEARS TO BE AT LEAST LOW PROBABILITES FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND
HAIL. FOR THIS REASON HAVE ADDED 5% RISK AREAS FOR MUCH OF THE
DELMARVA REGION. ANY MEANINGFUL THREAT OF SEVERE WILL QUICKLY END
WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE.
..DARROW/ROGERS.. 09/15/2011
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