SWODY1
SPC AC 170515
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1215 AM CDT SAT SEP 17 2011
VALID 171200Z - 181200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NWRN TX INTO PORTIONS OF
CNTRL KS...
...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS...
LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO BE A PRIMARY FORCING
MECHANISM FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE PLAINS...ESPECIALLY
THE CNTRL PLAINS SATURDAY. EARLY MORNING LLJ ACROSS THE TX/OK
PANHANDLES/WRN KS WILL EASE DURING THE DAY THEN INCREASE AGAIN
DURING THE EVENING HOURS WHICH SHOULD MODULATE THE
INTENSITY/ORGANIZATION OF TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THIS REGION.
ADDITIONALLY...A SUBTLE BUT POTENTIALLY MEANINGFUL DISTURBANCE WILL
EJECT ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES WITHIN THE BASE OF THE LARGER LONG WAVE
TROUGH INTO THE SRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS NEAR PEAK HEATING. THIS
FEATURE SHOULD ENHANCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE DRYLINE
WHERE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL PROVE INSTRUMENTAL IN WEAK
CAP REMOVAL. GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW LEVEL JET FOCUSED INTO
SWRN KS IT APPEARS A WARM FRONTAL SEGMENT WILL EVOLVE ACROSS KS BY
18/00Z. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SERVE AS THE NRN EXTENT OF SIGNIFICANT
MOISTENING/DESTABILIZATION AND THE MORE ROBUST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE NOTED PRIMARILY SOUTH OF I-70 INTO NWRN TX. EVEN SO DEEP
LAYER SHEAR PROFILES ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE THAT STRONG AND THE MOST
LIKELY CONVECTIVE MODES WILL BE STRONG MULTI-CELLS AND PERHAPS A FEW
WEAK SUPERCELLS. HAIL IS THE GREATEST THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY
ALONG WITH SOME THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS. GIVEN THAT STORM MOTIONS
WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 10-15KT MOST STORMS WILL WEAKEN OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS SHORTLY AFTER DARK.
..DARROW/ROGERS.. 09/17/2011
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