SWODY1
SPC AC 191245
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0745 AM CDT MON SEP 19 2011
VALID 191300Z - 201200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
FULL LATITUDE UPR TROUGH ALIGNED WITH THE MS RVR VLY AT DAYBREAK
WILL CONTINUE EWD INTO THE ERN STATES TONIGHT. ASSOCIATED CDFNT
WILL ADVANCE EWD TO A 00Z POSITION FROM LWR MI TO SE TX.
TO THE W...VIGOROUS MID-LVL SHORTWAVE TROUGH /H5 WINDS 70+ KTS/ WILL
TRANSLATE FROM THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN/PAC NW TO THE NCNTRL PLAINS
TONIGHT. STRONG LOW/MID-LVL FRONTOGENESIS WILL EVOLVE IN WRN MT
THIS MORNING WITH THE FRONT RAPIDLY MOVING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND
NW NEB BY 12Z TUE.
...ERN MT INTO THE DAKOTAS...
PLUME OF N PAC MOISTURE /PWATS OF 0.5-0.9 IN/ WILL ACCOMPANY THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPR WAVE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS INTO
THE DAKOTAS TODAY. ALTHOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
MEAGER...STEEP LOW/MID-LVL LAPSE RATES WILL COMBINE WITH THE MID-LVL
MOISTURE FOR MLCAPES OF A FEW HUNDRED J PER KG THIS AFTN ALONG/AHEAD
OF THE SEWD MOVING CDFNT. AS A RESULT...SCTD HIGH-BASED TSTMS WILL
LIKELY FORM BY MID-AFTN IN ERN MT AND SPREAD INTO WRN/CNTRL ND AND
FAR NWRN SD BY EVE. DEEP WLYS /INCREASING TO OVER 70 KTS AT H5/
WILL ENCOURAGE BOTH DISCRETE CELLS AND CLUSTERS TRANSITIONING INTO
FAST-MOVING LINE SEGMENTS THROUGH LATE AFTN/EARLY EVE IN ERN MT.
ISOLD SVR WIND GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED...EVENTUALLY
SPREADING INTO PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS THIS EVENING.
...LWR OH/MS VLY SWWD INTO SERN TX...
TSTMS ONGOING FROM PARTS OF S TX NEWD TO LWR MI WILL CONTINUE TO
PROGRESS E TOWARD THE UPR OH VLY...SCNTRL STATES AND WRN GULF BASIN
THROUGH THE DAY. WIND FIELDS/DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY AHEAD
OF THE CONVECTION WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY ROBUST OWING TO WEAKENING
NATURE OF THE UPR TROUGH AND WIDESPREAD CLOUDS/CONVECTION. AS
SUCH...SVR WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
..RACY/COHEN .. 09/19/2011
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