SWODY1
SPC AC 210532
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1232 AM CDT WED SEP 21 2011
VALID 211200Z - 221200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EWD FROM NRN MN ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
DURING THE DAY...AS UPPER LEVEL COOLING SPREADS INTO MI WITH A 60-70
KT MID LEVEL SPEED MAX. AT THE SURFACE...OCCLUDED LOW WILL MIRROR
THE UPPER SYSTEM...WITH A DRYLINE MIXING EWD INTO ERN LOWER
MI...CNTRL IND AND INTO WRN OH BY 00Z. AHEAD OF THE
DRYLINE...WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED...WITH
STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLE LATER IN THE DAY.
ELSEWHERE...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RETURN NWD ACROSS THE SERN
STATES WHERE A WEAKENING SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN. AS
SUCH...CLOUDS...WEAK SHEAR AND POOR LAPSE RATES PROFILES SHOULD
LIMIT ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL HERE.
...LOWER MI INTO OH...
AREAS OF RAIN AND WEAK STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE ONGOING WITHIN WARM
ADVECTION REGIME AHEAD OF DRYLINE. SOME HEATING IS LIKELY W OF THIS
ACTIVITY FROM LOWER MI INTO IND AND WRN OH LATE. WEAK
CONVERGENCE...STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND COOLING ALOFT WILL AID IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF AT LEAST ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
CAPABLE OF LOW END SEVERE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. THIS THREAT WILL BE
MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN...DISSIPATING AFTER SUNSET.
..JEWELL/GRAMS.. 09/21/2011
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